300 FULL HUMAN CAPACITY 200 120 100 CEILING: MAXIMUM THE PAID SYSTEM CAN PRODUCE 70 US LIFE EXPECTANCY, FOR SCALE 0 "ABSENCE OF SICKNESS" — THE SYSTEM'S DEFINITION OF SUCCESS −99 THEORETICAL FLOOR
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TODAY

We have been measuring the wrong thing.

Score derived from OECD per-capita spending vs rank, Makary/BMJ uncounted-mortality correction, KFF/state-AG denial-rate data. Inputs updated quarterly. See methodology.

The system does not lack interventions. It sells interventions with an NNT of 138 while ignoring interventions with an NNT of 1.

NNT ∞ vs NNT 1

Number Needed to Treat: how many people must receive an intervention for one to benefit. Lower is better.

What the system sells
∞
mRNA COVID vaccine, death prevention
▸
NNT for death prevention: undefined. Pfizer's own trial: 15 deaths in vaccinated group vs 14 in control. Doshi/BMJ reanalysis using FDA's Table 19: efficacy drops to 19-29% when all suspected cases are included. Vaccine group had more total adverse events (1,816 vs 1,594). VAERS captures <1% of adverse events (Harvard Pilgrim/AHRQ, grant R18 HS 017045). HHS never filed a single biannual safety report to Congress in 30+ years as required by the 1986 Act (ICAN v. HHS, SDNY). Trial unblinded at 6 months. $36.8B single-year revenue (Pfizer 2021).
Polack et al. NEJM 2020; Doshi, BMJ 2021:m4058; FDA VRBPAC briefing 12/10/2020 Table 19; AHRQ ESP:VAERS final report 2010; ICAN v. HHS stipulation 7/9/2018 SDNY
138
Statin, primary prevention, 5 years
▸
138 people take a statin daily for 5 years for one to avoid death. The other 137 receive no mortality benefit but are exposed to side effects including myopathy, diabetes onset, and cognitive effects.
Cochrane 2013; theNNT.com
71
Flu shot, healthy adults
▸
71 healthy adults vaccinated for one to avoid confirmed influenza. Cochrane review of 52 RCTs, 80,000+ adults.
Cochrane 2018, Demicheli et al. (CD001269.pub6)
7
Antidepressant vs placebo
▸
7 people treated for one to respond beyond placebo. Placebo response alone is ~35%. The drug adds ~15 percentage points on top of the body's own response.
Cochrane primary-care review
What the system does not sell
?
Pre-mRNA vaccines, efficacy under audit
▸
Reported 95%+ efficacy for MMR, polio, smallpox. Polio decline tracks DDT phase-out (EPA ban 1972; decline began 1952 after peak DDT agricultural use). Licensure trials: 50-150 subjects, weeks observation, no inert placebo. No multigenerational safety data. Zero biannual safety reports filed in 30+ years (ICAN v. HHS). In the "does not sell" column because these cost pennies per dose.
Original FDA licensure protocols; EPA DDT timeline; ICAN v. HHS stipulation 7/9/2018 SDNY
1
Clean water vs cholera, 1854
John Snow; Lancet historical
6
Hand washing, puerperal fever 18% to 1%
Semmelweis 1847; PMC3807775
1
Vitamin C for active scurvy
Lind 1753; biochemistry
1
Treating an active oral infection
Clinical standard of care

NNT = 1 means every person treated benefits. NNT = ∞ means the trial showed no benefit on the endpoint that matters. Every claim above is sourced to primary documents. Tap any row for evidence.

1847

Ignaz Semmelweis asked doctors to wash their hands. He was ignored, mocked, and committed to an asylum where he was beaten to death. The largest single intervention in modern medical history was rejected for fifteen years because it was free.

The pattern has not changed. It has only moved upstream.

The space above the ceiling is where health begins.

The paid system stops at 100. It cannot take you further. But the interventions that move the score from -43 toward 300 are measurable, sourced, and most of them are free.

Read the methodology